The SEQ Development Brief
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The national market stalled in May; SEQ held firm
Cotality’s May Home Value Index, released 1 June 2026, was flat nationally at 0.0% for the month, the weakest monthly result in a year. Sydney fell 0.9% and Melbourne 0.8%, and the two largest markets dragged the national number to a standstill. Brisbane ran against that grain, up 0.9% for the month and sitting among the stronger capitals alongside Hobart. Perth and Darwin led at 1.5%.
The annual spread between capitals has widened to 24 percentage points, Perth up 26.0% over the year against Melbourne at 2.0%. Brisbane’s April median dwelling value was $1,116,180 (Cotality April release), and the May result confirms the SEQ premium is now about resilience rather than acceleration: growth has decelerated from the 1.8% monthly prints of late summer, but it has not turned.
For SEQ operators the signal is the divergence itself. Affordability limits, three rate hikes this year and the Budget-night investor-tax changes are pulling heat out of Sydney and Melbourne, while Brisbane’s tight rental market and interstate migration keep a floor under values. A flat national tape with positive SEQ prints is the setup that has historically pulled investor capital north. Presales feasibilities written against double-digit annual Brisbane growth should be re-cut to a low-single-digit monthly pace; the cycle is cooling everywhere, SEQ just from a higher base.
(Sources: Cotality May 2026 Home Value Index, released 1 June 2026, via Cotality and Savings.com.au; Cotality April 2026 HVI for the Brisbane median.)
The data week was about a cooling cycle confirmed from two directions: values flat nationally, approvals down nationally, with Queensland the relative outperformer on both.
ABS Building Approvals for April 2026, released 2 June 2026, showed total dwellings approved down 3.4% nationally to 16,710 (seasonally adjusted). Queensland went the other way, total dwellings up 0.3% and private-sector houses up 0.9%. The state has now logged a positive house-approvals month against a falling national count, the same unit-versus-house split that ran through the March print. Approvals remain the leading read on the supply response, and Queensland holding flat-to-positive while the country contracts is consistent with the value divergence in Big moves.
The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% after its 5 May hike, the third of the year. The next decision is 16 June 2026 and the market is split: CBA and independent economists lean to a hold pending the June-quarter CPI, while Westpac sees another hike live. The June meeting falls after this issue, so the rate stays at the most-recent set value here; the decision is flagged in On our radar.
The March-quarter national accounts released 3 June 2026. We are holding off on a quarterly growth figure until the released number is confirmed against the ABS series; the release is noted in On our radar rather than front-run here.
On rents, the most-recent released vacancy data is still SQM’s April print: national 1.2%, Brisbane 0.8%. The May vacancy print is due mid-June. REIQ’s Q1 2026 Queensland Market Monitor put the state vacancy at 0.9% and Greater Brisbane around 1.0%, confirming the rental market stayed tight through the March quarter.
Brisbane
A two-stage development at 309 North Quay was approved on 29 May 2026: two towers of 56 and 51 storeys delivering roughly 1,100 dwellings on the city reach of the river. Plus Studio drew the towers, Blight Rayner the podium and public realm. It is one of the larger single-site residential consents in the CBD in recent years and lands as the Cotality numbers show Brisbane values still rising while the southern capitals fall.
The Brisbane Major Centres tailored amendment for Indooroopilly (20 to 25 storeys), Carindale (10 to 30) and Nundah (12 to 15) remains with council after consultation closed 25 May. No resolution date has been set. Operators holding candidate sites inside the new height envelopes should expect repricing on adoption, per Issue 001’s coverage. The North Quay consent and the Major Centres pipeline together point the densest forward supply in SEQ at the inner-city and inner-suburban transit bands.
Sunshine Coast
Walker Corporation’s SOL by Walker, the first residential stage of the $2.5 billion Maroochydore City Centre, is in construction, with the first of its two towers targeted for completion late 2027 and the second early 2028. The 251-dwelling project is the reference point for coastal CBD apartment pricing as the May value divergence plays out; a flat national market with Brisbane and the Coast holding positive sets the demand backdrop for off-the-plan stock settling in 2027 and 2028.
Sunshine Coast vacancy held among the tightest sub-markets in the country through the March quarter. No new council decision of scale surfaced this week beyond the standing Maroochydore and Aura programmes.
The north-south divergence is the trade.
Cotality’s May index has Sydney and Melbourne falling while Brisbane holds at +0.9%, and the annual spread between capitals is now 24 points. A flat national tape with positive SEQ prints is the classic precondition for the next leg of interstate capital rotation into Queensland. Operators feasibility-testing 2027 settlements should model SEQ outperformance continuing, not a reversion to national growth.
Approvals are the supply tell, and Queensland is the exception.
National dwelling approvals fell 3.4% in April while Queensland lifted 0.3% on total dwellings and 0.9% on houses. A falling national pipeline into a tight SEQ rental market widens the gap between demand and completions over the next 18 months. That gap is the structural case under SEQ rent growth and the small-multi feasibility that rides on it.
The rate path is still a binary into 16 June.
The cash rate has held at 4.35% since the 5 May hike, and the June meeting is genuinely split, with CBA and independent reads to a hold and Westpac to a further rise. Presales written before May against a forecast pause need a settlement-risk pass; anything written now should be priced against the live possibility of a fourth hike, not a peak.
Inner-Brisbane density keeps stacking.
The 309 North Quay consent adds about 1,100 dwellings on the river, on top of the Major Centres height pipeline still sitting with council. The forward dwelling count committed to Brisbane’s inner ring now outweighs any other SEQ corridor outside the named greenfield PDAs. Pricing discovery on this stock through 2027 and 2028 will set the inner-Brisbane median for the rest of the decade.
The first-home-buyer date is still live.
The $30,000 First Home Owner Grant reverts to $15,000 on 30 June 2026 for new-build contracts signed from 1 July, and Queensland’s Boost to Buy SEQ allocation was exhausted earlier in the year. Operators with entry-level presales pipeline should treat 30 June as a hard line: present demand is partly date-bound, and the same product is structurally harder to move at the same price after it.
Walker Corporation: SOL by Walker, Maroochydore City Centre, in construction; first tower targeted late 2027, second early 2028 (251 dwellings, two towers). Source: Walker Corporation; The Urban Developer.
10 June 2026: ABS Building Approvals, next monthly release.
Mid-June 2026: SQM Research May vacancy print (Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast).
16 June 2026: RBA Monetary Policy Board June decision.
30 June 2026: Queensland $30,000 First Home Owner Grant sunset; reverts to $15,000 for new-build contracts signed from 1 July.
2 July 2026: Waraba PDA Development Scheme community submissions close (opened 18 May 2026).
July 2026: Queensland Residential Activation Fund Round 2 announcements expected ($500 million pool; applications closed 24 April).
Late July 2026: Stockland Twin Waters first release (17 homesites), pricing signal for Sunshine Coast coastal-amenity land.
August 2026: APRA Q1 2026 quarterly ADI Property Exposures release.
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The SEQ Development Brief lands Tuesday mornings — the big residential development moves across South-East Queensland's twelve councils, plus the occasional update on what we're building. Free.