The SEQ Development Brief

ASIC gives private credit three months

ASIC Commissioner Simone Constant told a Commercial and Asset Finance Brokers Association event in Sydney on 22 September that the regulator had challenged private credit to lift its standards by 2027, “that’s three months away”, and that the sector should now prepare for enforcement action (ABC, 22 September). Her speech says multiple enforcement investigations are under way and that ASIC will publish its surveillance findings within months (ASIC).

Property sits at the centre of it. Constant put real estate at 40 to 60% of Australian private credit, and possibly more, in a sector that has grown about 500% in a decade. She named development lending as exposed to cost escalation, rate rises and unrealistic valuations, and singled out two practices: capitalising interest, and funds that hold illiquid property loans while offering investors regular redemptions.

The review behind the warning covered 28 funds. Four disclosed borrower interest rate information. Fewer than half had detailed written credit and impairment policies. Two wholesale funds stress-tested their liquidity (ABC, 22 September). The case in the background is Bathla, the Sydney developer whose $3.4 billion from more than 40 lenders ran through about 540 special purpose vehicles (ASIC).

ASIC expects every participant to test itself against its 10 private credit principles, which cover governance, valuations, disclosure and stewardship.

For SEQ developers the channel is direct. Non-bank and private credit desks fund a large share of the sites and presale-light projects the major banks decline. A fund told to carry current valuations and disclose capitalised interest will write new construction and land facilities on more conservative terms, and the change is most likely to show up at the next credit approval or refinance rather than in any headline rate.

Unemployment rises into decision day

The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in August, up 0.2 percentage points, in seasonally adjusted terms (ABS, 24 September). Queensland’s rate rose 0.3 points to 4.5%. Employment still grew, by 39,500 to 14,836,600, and participation lifted 0.2 points to 67.1%, so part of the rise is more people looking for work rather than fewer people in it.

The Reserve Bank Board announces its decision at 2:30pm on Tuesday 29 September. The cash rate is 4.35% after three rises this year, in February, March and May (RBA). CBA expects a 25 basis point rise to 4.60%, and said on 21 September that markets priced a September rise at about 90%, up from about 30% before the July inflation figures (CBA, 21 September). This issue goes out before the announcement and assumes no outcome.

What matters for a sales programme is the combination. A higher cash rate lowers what each buyer can borrow. A softer job market lowers how many buyers are willing to commit. In the week to 24 September both moved against anyone planning to sell presales or completed stock into the December quarter, and HIA’s new home sales figures (below) suggest Queensland buyers had already started pulling back.

Cotality’s August index fell 0.9% nationally, the fifth consecutive monthly decline, leaving values 3.1% lower over the quarter and 2.7% higher over the year (Cotality, 1 September). Brisbane fell 1.0% for the month and 2.7% over the quarter but is still up 10.8% on a year ago, at a median of $1,080,142. Cotality also revised Brisbane’s July result from a 0.6% fall to a 1.2% fall. Regional Queensland fell 0.5% for the month and is up 9.1% over the year.

New home sales are falling faster. HIA’s August figures showed national sales down 10.0% for the month and 7.7% on a year ago, a fourth consecutive fall and the lowest level in more than a year (HIA, 15 September). Queensland sales fell 20.2% over the three months to August against the previous three, the second weakest result after Victoria at 27.0%.

Auction results confirm the local weakness. In the week to 20 September Brisbane had the lowest clearance rate of any capital at 31.4% on 176 auctions, down from 38.5% the week before and 61.9% a year earlier, and its 17th consecutive week below 40% (Cotality). The Gold Coast cleared 31.3% of 48 auctions and the Sunshine Coast 31.8% of 107, against 49.1% across the combined capitals.

August building approvals and the monthly CPI both land on 30 September, and Cotality’s September index on 1 October, all after this issue. The table carries July approvals and the August index.

Brisbane

Deputy Premier Jarrod Bleijie released a proposed amendment to the Bowen Hills Priority Development Area on 17 September that lifts the height limit from 30 to 50 storeys and allows up to 27,000 homes over the life of the PDA, about 4,000 more than the current scheme (Queensland Government, 17 September). The 108 hectare PDA sits beside the Victoria Park precinct, which is planned to hold the new Brisbane Stadium, the National Aquatic Centre and the Showgrounds. Consultation closes on 9 October. The state cites its earlier Woolloongabba amendments as producing a 466% rise in housing development applications within twelve months.

Council approved Shayher Group’s twin towers at 309 North Quay, 56 and 51 storeys with more than 1,100 dwellings on the western edge of the CBD riverfront, designed by Blight Rayner Architecture and Plus Studio (Brisbane Development, 20 September).

On the city’s western edge, Nine Network has listed its 2.54 hectare Mt Coot-tha studio site at 654 Sir Samuel Griffith Drive, with expressions of interest through Savills closing on 28 October (The Urban Developer, 25 September). The site sits under the Mt Coot-tha Neighbourhood Plan, which is aimed at eco-tourism, so any residential repositioning would need an approval the plan does not currently point toward.

Gold Coast

Homecorp started construction on Lýon Residences at Budds Beach in Surfers Paradise, a $360 million, 32 storey building with 178 apartments priced from $1.6 million (Brisbane Development, 20 September). City of Gold Coast approved the scheme on 19 June under MCU/2026/72, and it grew from 27 storeys and 156 units during assessment.

Sunshine Coast

Sunshine Coast Airport has lodged a draft masterplan with Economic Development Queensland for a 34 hectare Airport North Precinct on the decommissioned runway beside Marcoola, valued at $75 million (The Urban Developer, 25 September). Proposed uses include a resort and hotel, short-term accommodation, multiple residences, a retirement facility, retail and health services. Aviation requirements generally hold buildings to 10 storeys.

The site sits inside the 460 hectare Sunshine Coast Airport PDA declared in 2023, so EDQ assesses the application and Sunshine Coast Council does not. Public notification of 20 business days has not yet started. Councillor Taylor Bunnag has opposed the plan, citing stretched infrastructure and the loss of land for aviation uses (ABC, 23 September). No dwelling count has been published.

Redland

A federal environmental assessment is open on Sutgold Pty Ltd’s residential subdivision at Double Jump Road, Victoria Point, under EPBC reference 2024/09825 (Redlands2030, 27 September). Project documentation describes 240 single dwelling lots, two medium density areas and a small commercial area, clearing 32.57 hectares or 86.2% of the project area and 1,054 koala habitat trees. Proposed offsets total 113.84 hectares at Woolshed and Thagoona near Ipswich. Comments close on 2 October.

The project is being assessed on preliminary documentation, a lighter track than a full environmental impact statement. For anyone holding koala habitat land in the Redland growth areas, the offset ratio and location here are a working reference for what the Commonwealth may accept.

The DA desk is next

Brisbane City Council’s tender for an “AI enabled Development Application Support Solution”, run under its Faster Smarter Approvals programme, closed on 24 September after opening on 1 July (AustralianTenders, reference CW29217). There is no contract value, no vendor and no council announcement yet, so this is a council shopping for a tool rather than launching one. It is still the clearest sign that Australia’s largest council expects machines to read part of its DA intake.

The closest working model is in Toronto. On 31 August the city launched a building permit pre-check on Clariti’s CivCheck platform, which flags missing documents and some zoning and building code issues before lodgement and cites the rule behind each flag (PR Newswire, 31 August). It cannot approve, refuse or delay a permit. In Honolulu’s earlier use, residential permits that went through the tool reached a decision 55% faster, saving applicants more than 40 days on average.

Those savings come from fewer information requests, not faster judgement. That is where a small developer’s holding cost is spent: the weeks between lodgement and the first request for information, and the weeks answering it. If Brisbane’s tool works like Toronto’s, the gain goes to applicants whose documents are already complete and consistent. The consultant team that assembles a clean, cross-checked lodgement pack will matter more, and the one that relies on the assessment officer to spot gaps will cost more time than it does now.

Brisbane, the Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast all cleared about 31% of auctions in the week to 20 September, against 49.1% across the combined capitals and 61.9% in Brisbane a year earlier. Brisbane has now held below 40% for 17 straight weeks. Source: Cotality, finalised clearance rates.